wholesale power markets have only recently been deregulated. We introduce the weather factor into well-known forecasting models …

, forecasting, assessment of policy effectiveness in macro, finance, marketing and monetary economics. …

of point and density forecasting. The relative accuracy is higher when the full distribution is predicted. We also …

forecasting daily electricity prices in two of the main European markets, Germany and Italy. We do that by means of mixed …-frequency models, introducing a Bayesian approach to reverse unrestricted MIDAS models (RU-MIDAS). We study the forecasting accuracy …

from the weather forecasting literature known as `ensemble modelling'. In this approach, uncertainty about model … provide two examples of this modelling strategy: (i) forecasting inflation with a disaggregate ensemble; and (ii) forecasting …

volatility specifications, in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree. …

-of-sample forecasting experiment. Our results show that exploiting the informational content in a common global business cycle factor … improves forecasting accuracy in terms of both point and density forecast evaluation across a large panel of countries. In line … earlier in the evaluation sample. However, this time is different also in other respects. On longer forecasting horizons the …