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This paper investigates how investor sentiment affects stock market returns and evaluates the predictability power of sentiment indices on U.S. and EU stock market returns. As regards the American example, evidence shows that investor sentiment indices have an economic and statistical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012022093
This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of optimal pooling and tilting techniques, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012515464
This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of optimal pooling and tilting techniques, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013229967
This paper studies how to combine real-time forecasts from a broad range of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) specifications and survey forecasts by optimally exploiting their properties. To do that, it compares the forecasting performance of optimal pooling and tilting techniques, including...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012507233
key differences in the pricing mechanism that applies to residential vs. non-residential real estate investment trusts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905140
a new indicator, named World steel production, and compare it to other existing indicators, precisely the Kilian's index … of global real economic activity and the index of OECD World industrial production. We develop an econometric approach … based on desirable econometric properties in relation to the quarterly measure of World or global gross domestic product to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012971220
In this paper we propose a new indicator of monthly global real economic activity, named world steel production. We use … world steel production, OECD industrial production index and Kilian's rea index to forecast world real GDP, and key … commodity prices. We find that world steel production generates large statistically significant gains in forecasting world real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012953420
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014501101
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010507817
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