The accuracy of real-time forecasts of macroeconomic variables that are subject to revisions may crucially depend on the choice of data used to compare the forecasts against. We put forward a flexible time - varying parameter regression framework to obtain early estimates of the final value of...

We propose to construct factor models based on disaggregate survey data to forecast national aggregate macroeconomic variables. We apply our methodology to Norges Bank's regional survey, which allows to construct regional and sectoral factor models, and to the Swedish Business Tendency survey,...

We assess the forecast ability of Norges Bank's regional survey for inflation, GDP growth and the unemployment rate in Norway. We propose several factor models based on regional and sectoral information given by the survey. The analysis identifies which information extracted from the ten sectors...