The terms of trade of commodity-producing small open economies are subject to large shocks that can be an important source of economic fluctuations. Alongside times of high volatility, however, these economies also experience periods in which their terms of trade are comparatively stable. We...

The terms of trade are subject to both permanent and transitory shocks. Particularly for commodity-producing small open economies, it is sometimes argued that the inability of agents to determine which of these shocks are permanent and which are transitory leads to more macroeconomic volatility...

We use a structural vector autoregression model to characterise the aggregate and industry effects of exchange rate movements on the Australian economy. We find that a temporary 10 per cent appreciation of the real exchange rate that is unrelated to the terms of trade or interest rate...

We use state-space methods to construct new estimates of Australian gross domestic product (GDP) growth from the published national accounts estimates of expenditure, income and production. Across a range of specifications, our measures are substantially less volatile than headline GDP growth....

This paper explores the effect of terms of trade volatility on macroeconomic volatility using a panel of 71 countries from 1971–2005. It finds that terms of trade volatility has a statistically significant and positive impact on the volatility of output growth and inflation, although the...