This paper documents that the earnings yield and book-to-price combine to predict equity returns in a way that is consistent with the rational pricing of risk. It is well known that earnings yields predict returns in the cross-section, consistent with standard formulas that show that the...

Historical cost accounting deals with uncertainty by deferring the recognition of earnings until the uncertainty has largely been resolved. Such accounting affects both earnings and book value, and produces expected earnings growth deemed to be at risk. This paper shows that the...

This paper documents that the earnings yield and book-to-price combine to predict equity returns in a way that is consistent with the rational pricing of risk. It is well known that earnings yields predict returns in the cross-section, consistent with standard formulas that show that the...

Value stocks earn higher returns than growth stocks on average, but a “value” position can turn against the investor. Fundamental analysis can explain this so-called value trap: the investor may be buying earnings growth that is risky. Both E/P and B/P, come into play: E/P (or P/E) indicates...

The paper presents a framework for identifying accounting numbers that indicate risk and expected return. The framework establishes conditions under which book-to-price (B/P), so prominent in asset pricing, indicates expected returns: B/P indicates expected returns if it forecasts future...

The paper presents an accounting framework for identifying characteristics that indicate expected returns. A model links expected returns to expected earnings and earnings growth, so a characteristic indicates expected returns if it indicates expected earnings and earnings growth that the market...

Firm size proxies for the risk to expected earnings. Typically, smaller firms have higher expected earnings growth, but that growth has higher risk of not being realized. This explains the well-documented return premium associated with small firms. However, at times it is large firms where...