Showing 1 - 10 of 12
This paper shows that Vector Autoregression with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results by De Mol, Giannone, and Reichlin (2008) and show that, when the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the cross-sectional dimension, the forecasting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248367
This paper uses a data-set including time series data on macroeconomic variables, loans, deposits and interest rates for the euro area in order to study the features of financial intermediation over the business cycle. We find that stylized facts for aggregate monetary and real variables are re-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009654179
This paper analyses the impact on the macroeconomy of the ECB’s non-standard monetary policy implemented in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the Fall of 2008. We study in particular the effect of the expansion of the intermediation of transactions across central bank balance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009421125
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries’ business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP percapita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827103
Is maximum likelihood suitable for factor models in large cross-sections of time series? We answer this question from both an asymptotic and an empirical perspective. We show that estimates of the common factors based on maximum likelihood are consistent for the size of the cross-section (n) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827104
This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827105
This paper assesses the role of surveys for the early estimates of GDP in the euro area in a model-based automated procedures which exploits the timeliness of their release. The analysis is conducted using both an historical evaluation and a real time case study on the current conjuncture.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530655
The recent recession has affected all countries around the world in an almost synchronous way. Interestingly, not only has it hit countries with bad macroeconomic fundamentals, but also those with AAA rating. The degree to which countries have been affected by the crisis, on the other hand, has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530668
Economists have imperfect knowledge of the present state of the economy and even of the recent past. Many key statistics are released with a long delay and they are subsequently revised. As a consequence, unlike weather forecasters, who know what is the weather today and only have to predict the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008530672
This paper shows how large-dimensional dynamic factor models are suitable for structural analysis. We argue that all identification schemes employed in SVAR analysis can be easily adapted in dynamic factor models. Moreover, the “problem of fundamentalness”, which is intractable in structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005002380