Comment: What Nancy Marion does in this paper is to present a cohesive survey of three strands of literature: the theoretical literature on currency crises, banking crises, and the more recent papers that have attempted to link the two. It is the "twin crisis" literature, which focuses on...

This study analyzes and provides empirical tests of early warning indicators of banking and currency crises in emerging economies. The aim is to identify key empirical regularities in the run-up to banking and currency crises that would enable officials and private market participants to...

¿Es verdaderamente la crisis financiera 2007-2008 de las hipotecas sub-prime en EEUU, un fenómeno nuevo y diferente? Nuestro examen de los registros históricos más extensos encuentra asombrosas similitudes, tanto cuantitativas como cualitativas, con 18 crisis financieras en países...

Since 1990 capital has flowed from industrial countries to developing regions like Latin America, and parts of Asia. Reentry into international capital markets is a welcome turn of events for most countries. However, capital inflows are often associated with inflationary pressures, a real...

More frequent and increasingly severe crises are encouraging emerging market economies to seek means to make themselves less vulnerable to sudden stops in capital flows. Capital controls have been widely discussed, but dollarization may offer a longer-term and more market-friendly solution.

In recent years, many developing countries have intervened in foreign exchange markets to offset to some extent the effect on their economies of large capital flows. Often, changes in reserve requirements were used to mitigate the impact of that intervention on domestic money supplies. Because...

This essay has four objectives. The first is to document the current episode of capital inflows to Latin America based on data for ten Latin American countries. 6 The second is to compare the Latin American experience with that of a number of Asian countries that have also been the recipients of...

In this chapter we provide a brief review of the “signals” approach used in this book to assess the probability of a currency or a banking crisis. This methodology was first used to analyze the performance of a variety of macroeconomic and financial indicators around the “twin crises” in...

The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...

In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...