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Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System
Reinhart, Carmen; Goldstein, Morris; Kaminsky, Graciela - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2000
In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531924
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Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability
Reinhart, Carmen; Goldstein, Morris; Kaminsky, Graciela - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2000
Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531929
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Capital Controls: A Meta-analysis Approach
Magud, Nicolas; Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, Kenneth - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2011
In this note we summarize our recent paper, where we delved into the details of this apple-to-oranges problem with the aim of defining a minimum common ground. We begin our analysis by explicitly documenting the kinds of measures that are construed as capital controls. Along the way, we describe...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009004145
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La tasa de cambio real como meta de política: teoría y evidencia
Reinhart, Carmen; Calvo, Guillermo; Vegh, Carlos - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 1994
Este trabajo presenta un análisis teórico y empirico de las politicas dirigidas a alcanzar un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio real. Un modelo de optimización intertemporal sugiere que, en ausencia de cambios en la politica fiscal, un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de carnbio...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005616737
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Capital Controls: Myth and Reality - A Portfolio Balance Approach
Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, Kenneth S; Magud, Nicolas E. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011
The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls; (ii) there is significant heterogeneity across countries and time in the control measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008839457
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Rating the Rating Agencies
Reinhart, Carmen; Goldstein, Morris; Kaminsky, Graciela - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2000
In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531919
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Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach
Reinhart, Carmen; Goldstein, Morris; Kaminsky, Graciela - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2000
The signals approach was applied to 24 of the indicators around the dates of the 29 banking and the 87 currency crises. In what follows, we first compare our results for the 15 original indicators in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1996) to those presented in that study. This exercise assesses the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008531936
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Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present
Reinhart, Carmen; Reinhart, Vincent R. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2008
economies. In the case of the latter, capital inflow bonanzas are associated with a higher likelihood of economic crises (debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005089051
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Debt intolerance
Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, Kenneth; Savastano, Miguel - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2003
debt sustainability, debt restructuring, capital market integration, and the scope for international lending to ameliorate …This paper introduces the concept of “debt intolerance,” which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging … markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country standards. We argue that “safe” external debt …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005619850
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Temporary Controls on Capital Inflows
Reinhart, Carmen; Smith, R. Todd - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2001
During the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features: they were asymmetric, in that they were designed principally to discourage capital inflows, and they were temporary. This paper studies formally the consequences of these policies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005718057