The authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early-warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit unusual behavior in the periods preceding a crisis. An indicator exceeding a certain threshold value...

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors' risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors' risk aversion...

In this paper we present evidence that capital account reversals have become more severe foremerging markets. Because policy options are limited in the midst of a capital market crisisand because so many countries have already had crises recently, we focus on some of thepolicies that could...

In recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering tollon their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates--“soft pegs”--for these meltdowns. Adherents to that view advise countries to allow theircurrency to...

One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors’ risk aversion and behavior. This paper presents a stylized model illustrating how heterogeneous changes in investors’ risk...