This paper investigates the economic and social consequences of sovereign default on external debt. We focus on the crises' impact on real per capita GDP, infant mortality, life expectancy, poverty headcounts, and calorie supply per capita. After methodological exclusions, the sample covers 221...

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...

Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...