We estimate and test a model of the U.S. term structure that fits both the time series of interest rates and the cross-sectional shapes of the yield and volatility curves. In the model, three unobserved factors drive a stochastic discount process that prices assets so as to rule out arbitrage...

The inflation-indexed bonds the U.S. Treasury plans to issue will reduce the expected borrowing cost if the yield curve reflects a risk premium for inflation. In the United Kingdom, indexed bonds are also used to extract inflationary expectations and thus to guide monetary policy. The bonds will...

We find striking intraday adjustment patterns for price volatility, trading volume, and bid-ask spreads in the U.S. Treasuries market around the time of macroeconomic announcements. The patterns suggest certain hypotheses about price formation and liquidity provision in multiple-dealer markets....

A measure of the credibility of monetary policy is the inflation risk premium in nominal yields. This will be time varying and can be estimated by combining the information in the nominal term structure with that in the real term structure. We estimate these risk premia using a generalized CIR...

How is the term structure able to predict future interest rates several months in the future and why is it so steep at the short end? Recent empirical work shows that rates of mean reversion are too slow to help predict short rates or to account for the curve's steepness. We propose that short...

We take a close look at a year in the U.S. Treasury market and try to explain the sharpest price changes and most active trading episodes. The virtue of our analysis lies in its use of high-frequency data on market movements and accurate release times for a comprehensive set of economic...