This paper examines the likely influence of recent stock market fluctuations on major OECD economies, focusing on wealth effects and consumption. After reviewing the relevant theoretical framework and available empirical evidence, consumption functions are estimated for the US including the...

This study was prepared in the Economics Department as a contribution to the Organisation -wide study of the economic consequences of population ageing. It presents a number of long-term scenarios illustrating the likely domestic and international macroeconomic effects of ageing across the OECD...

Over the past two years, the key trading economies in SE Asia experienced major economic crises, involving financial turbulence, large capital outflows and currency depreciations. These, in turn, resulted in severe financial constraints and business failures and required major domestic...

This paper reviews the methods used for estimating potential output in OECD countries and the use of the resulting output gaps for the calculation of structural budget balances. The "split time trend" method for estimating trend output that was previously used for calculating structural budget...

La présente étude commence par une revue du cadre conceptuel des différentes mesures du chômage structurel et des autres méthodes empiriques qui ont été utilisées pour estimer ces mesures. A partir de là, elle expose une méthode pour estimer, au moyen du filtre de Kalman, les NAIRU...

The paper first reviews the conceptual framework underlying different measures of structural unemployment as well as alternative empirical methods that have been used to provide estimates of them. Drawing on this review, it goes on to develop a method for estimating time-varying NAIRUs across a...