Predictions of firm-by-firm term structures of credit spreads based on current spot and forward values can be improved upon by exploiting information contained in the shape of the credit-spread curve. However, the current credit-spread curve is not a sufficient statistic for predicting future...

The authors examine whether credit-spread curves, engendered by a mandatory subordinated-debt requirement for banks, would help predict bank risk. They extract the credit-spread curves each quarter for each bank in our sample, and analyze the information content of credit-spread slopes. They...

Predictions of firm-level credit spreads based on the current spot and forward credit spreads can be significantly improved upon by using the information contained in the shape of the creditspread curve. However, the current credit-spread curve is not a sufficient statistic for predicting future...

Recent advances in asset pricing - the reduced form approach to pricing risk debt and derivatives - are used to quantitatively evaluate several proposals for mandatory bank issue of subordinated debt. We find that credit spreads on both fixed and floating rate subordinated debt provide...