En este documento se muestra como las expectativas de inflacion son formadas y si cambios en la polÌtica o cambios estructurales influencian en dicha formacion. Cuatro experimentos son realizados con 75 individuos no experimentados donde se solicita predecir la inflacion domestica futura y...

Perron and Wada (2009) propose a new method of decomposition of the GDP in its trend and cycle components, which overcomes the identi.cation problems of models of unobserved components (UC) and ARIMA models and at the same time, admits non linearities and asym- metries in cycles. The method...

In this paper, we analyze the impact of several labor reforms in Spain on its equilibrium unemployment rate. To this end, we analyzed the behavior of the observed unemployment rate in Spain during the 1976-2012 period, thereby assessing whether that rate is better characterized as a hysteresis...

En este documento se analizan los determinantes de la frecuencia de intervenciÛn del Banco Central de Reserva en el mercado cambiario Peruano (compras y ventas). Se usan datos en frecuencia semanal para el periodo Enero 2001 hasta Diciembre 2010 usando la metodologia de modelos de conteo. Los...

This paper analyzes and employs two versions of the Functional Central Limit Theorem within the framework of a unit root with a structural break. Initial attention is focused on the probabilistic structure of the time series to be considered. Later, attention is placed on the asymptotic theory...

El presente documento analiza el impacto de las expectativas políticas sobre los retornos del índice general de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima (IGBVL) utilizando información para los periodos electorales de 1995 y 2000. La variable explicativa principal es una medida de la probabilidad de que un...

A dynamic factorial decomposition model of inflation is estimated using Peruvian monthly data for 1995:01-2008:07. This model allows identification of changes in three relevant ináation components: idiosyncratic relative prices, aggregate relative prices, and absolute prices. Furthermore,...

I use three non-linear econometric models to identify and analyze business cycles in the Peruvian economy for the period 1980:1-2008:4. The models are the Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) model suggested by Teräsvirta (1994), the extended version of the Markov-Switching model proposed by...

Quarterly time series data from Canada and the Canadian provinces for the period 1976:1-2005:3 are examined to determine if the unemployment rates in the Canadian provinces are converging to the national rate of unemployment. Firstly, we check for existence of stochastic convergence using recent...