Using three different econometric methodologies, this paper identifies business cycles fluctuations in Canadian regions using quarterly real GDP for the period 1961:1 - 2000:1. With the estimates of the transitory and permanent components, as well as filtered and smoothed probabilities of being...

The Taylor rule is estimated under the period 1963Q2 to 1999Q4 using Canadian data and the methodology proposed by Bai and Perron (1998) to estimate regression models with multiple endogenous breaks. Although monetary rules are notorious for suffering from structural instability, recent attempts...

The behaviour of the long-run real exchange rate for four Latin-American countries is investigated for the period 1957-2002. The long-run real exchange rate is derived from an unobserved component model which divides the real exchange rate into a permanent and a transitory component. The...

Following the approach suggested by Favero and Rovelli (2002), I estimate a three-equations system for different sub-samples for Canada. The results indicate that the preferences of the monetary authority have changed between the different regimes. In particular, the parameter associated to the...

When using quasi-differenced data in a model where a break in the intercept is allowed, asymptotic distributions of the M, ADF, and PT statistics are the same as those in the model where only an intercept and a time trend are included. However, the finite sample behaviour for common sample sizes...

Following Elliott (1999) and Perron and Rodríguez (2003), we develop unit root tests in the context of structural change models using GLS detrended data (Elliott, Rothenberg and Stock, 1996) when the initial observation is drawn from its unconditional distribution. We derive the limiting...

This paper uses six time series models to forecast seasonally unadjusted monthly data of Canadian enplaned/deplaned air passengers, for the domestic, transborder and international sectors. We find that forecasting performance of the models varies widely across series and forecast horizons. Our...

In a recent paper, Fajardo et al. (2009) propose an alternative semiparametric estimator of the fractional parameter in ARFIMA models which is robust to the presence of additive outliers. The results are very interesting, however, they use samples of 300 or 800 observations which are rarely...

We analyze di¤erent residual-based tests for the null of no cointegration using GLS detrended data. We …nd and simulate the limiting distributions of these statistics when GLS demeaned and GLS detrended data are used. The distributions depend of the number of right-hand side variables, the...

Perron and Rodríguez (2003) claimed that their procedure to detect for additive outliers (Tau-d) is powerful even when we have departures from the unit root case. In this note, we use Monte-Carlo simulations to show that Tau-d is powerful when we have ARFIMA(p; d; q) errors. Using simulations,...