There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling...

There are three great challenges facing researchers in modern macroeconomics today, all brought into sharp relief by the recent financial crisis. The first is to find more realistic, and yet tractable, ways to incorporate financial market frictions into our canonical models for analyzing...

There is an extensive empirical literature on political business cycles, but its theoretical foundations are grounded in pre-rational expectations macroeconomic theory. Here we show that electoral cycles in taxes, government spending and money growth can be modeled as an equilibrium signaling...

The global financial crisis serves as a reminder of the risks of financial globalization. After grappling with surges of capital inflows earlier in this decade, many emerging market and developing economies experienced a sharp reversal of those inflows in late 2008 as a result of the crisis....

We review the large literature on various economic policies that could help developing economies effectively manage the process of financial globalization. Our central findings indicate that policies promoting financial sector development, institutional quality and trade openness appear to help...

Contents -- 1 A Road Map to "Progress and Confusion" -- Part I The "New Normal" -- 2 Debt Supercycle, Not Secular Stagnation -- 3 Rethinking Secular Stagnation after Seventeen Months -- Part II Systemic Risk and Financial Regulation -- 4 A Note from the Session on Systemic Risk and Financial...

This paper examines annual commodity price data from England and Holland over a span of seven centuries. Our data set incorporates transactions prices on 8 commodities: barley, butter, cheese, eggs, oats, peas, silver, wheat as well as pound/shilling nominal exchange rates going back, in some...

We show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency between changes in the price of a country's major commodity export and changes in its nominal exchange rate. The relationship appears to be robust and to hold when we use contemporaneous (realized) commodity price...

This paper examines annual commodity price data from England and Holland over a span of seven centuries. Our data incorporates transaction prices on seven commodities: barley, butter, cheese, oats, peas, silver, and wheat, as well as pound/shilling nominal exchange rates going back, in some...

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, the authors find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and...