We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … after each conflict episode. Third, accidental conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent …

the intensity of a conflict. The model combines elements from network theory and from the politico-economic theory of … conflict. We postulate a Tullock contest success function augmented by an externality: each group's strength is increased by … efforts. We then perform an empirical analysis using data on the Second CongoWar, a conflict that involves many groups in a …