The conflict in Northern Ireland was an example of "complex warfare" with both insurgency and sectarian violence. We … present a unified model that helps to identify these two forms of conflict from the spatial distribution of violence. The … troop surge in 1972 and the proximity to the Republic of Ireland on the two elements of the conflict. …

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals … after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent …