In this paper I address the question of how uncertainty about damage costs and the possibility of resolving that uncertainty in the future affects the incentives for countries to join an international environmental agreement. I use a two-period model with a stock pollutant where the number of...

Quantitative modeling of risk and hazard from flooding involves decisions regarding the choice of model and goal of the modeling exercise, expressed by some measure of performance. This paper shows how the subjectivity in the choices of performance measures and observation sets used for model...

The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology is applied to the problem of predicting the spatially distributed, time-varying probabilities of inundation of all points on a floodplain. Advantage is taken of the relative independence of different effective conveyance...

This paper describes data assimilation (DA) and adaptive forecasting techniques for flood forecasting and their application to forecasting water levels at various locations along a 120 km reach of the river Severn, United Kingdom. The methodology exploits the top-down, data-based mechanistic...