Similar Search Results

Tillio, Alfredo Di; Gilboa, Itzhak; Samuelson, Larry - In: Theory and Decision 74 (2013) 2, pp. 167-182

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how … counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in … prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction. Copyright …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010865814

The predictive role of counterfactuals

Tillio, Alfredo Di; Gilboa, Itzhak; Samuelson, Larry - HAL - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010898891

Economic Models as Analogies

Gilboa, Itzhak; Postlewaite, Andrew; Samuelson, Larry; … - Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania - 2011

People often wonder why economists analyze models whose assumptions are known to be false, while economists feel that they learn a great deal from such exercises. We suggest that part of the knowledge generated by academic economists is case-based rather than rule-based. That is, instead of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009393919

A Model of Modeling

Gilboa, Itzhak; Postlewaite, Andrew; Samuelson, Larry; … - Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University - 2014

We propose a formal model of scientific modeling, geared to applications of decision theory and game theory. The model highlights the freedom that modelers have in conceptualizing social phenomena using general paradigms in these fields. It may shed some light on the distinctions between (i)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010928978