This paper considers forecasts of the distribution of data whose distribution function is possibly time varying. The forecast is achieved via time varying combinations of experts’ forecasts. We derive theoretical worse case bounds for general algorithms based on multiplicative updates of the...

This paper studies a procedure to combine individual forecasts that achieve theoretical optimal performance. The results apply to a wide variety of loss functions and no conditions are imposed on the data sequences and the individual forecasts apart from a tail condition. The theoretical results...

This paper is concerned with consistent nearest neighbor time series estimation for data generated by a Harris recurrent Markov chain. The goal is to validate nearest neighbor estimation in this general time series context, using simple and weak conditions. The framework considered covers, in a...

Given the sequential update nature of Bayes rule, Bayesian methods find natural application to prediction problems. Advances in computational methods allow to routinely use Bayesian methods in econometrics. Hence, there is a strong case for feasible predictions in a Bayesian framework. This...

We consider Sharpe’s one factor model of asset returns and its extension to K factors in order to explain theoretically why diversification can fail. This model can be used to explain nonlinear dependence amongst the assets in a portfolio. The result is intimately related to the tail...

We consider forecasting and prequential (predictive sequential) validation of meta-elliptical distributions with time varying parameters. Using the weak prequential principle of Dawid, we conduct model validation avoiding nuisance parameters problems. Results rely on the structure of...

We provide a new framework for identifying timing. Our analysis focuses on the smoothed joint history of the fund with the benchmark. The approach is fully non-parametric. Therefore, it has the advantage of avoiding the misspecification problems so common in this literature. The test statistic...

When computing regulated prices, the standard method is the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) which involves the estimation of a single parameter: the beta of the company. Yet, these computational methods fail to take into account any preference the regulator might have to increase or decrease...

Nonparametric estimation of the copula function using Bernstein polynomials is studied. Convergence in the uniform topology is established. From the nonparametric Bernstein copula, the nonparametric Bernstein copula density is derived. It is shown that the nonparametric Bernstein copula density...

The copula function is considered within the context of financial multivariate data sets that are not normally distributed. The Bernstein polynomial approximation to copulae is given and motivated by its desirable properties. The multivariate convergence properties are analysed. The concept of...