policy, including local approximations to the mean, persistence, and volatility of inflation. We present diverse sources of … uncertainty that impinge on the posterior predictive density for inflation, including model uncertainty, policy drift, structural … shifts and other shocks. We use a recently developed minimum entropy method to bring outside information to bear on inflation …

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing … the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural rate model even after economists had developed statistical evidence … inflation rate in light of updated probabilities that it assigns to three competing models of the Phillips curve. Cautious …

"This paper describes the continuous time stochastic process for money and inflation under which Cagan's adaptive …

financed by money creation and to destabilizing expectations dynamics that can occasionally divorce inflation from fundamentals …. Our maximum likelihood estimates allow us to interpret observed inflation rates in terms of variations in the deficits … that cut inflation without reforming deficits. Our estimates also allow us to infer the deficit adjustments that seem to …