Sovereign spreads can be broken up into two components=the expected loss from default and the risk premium, with the latter reflecting how investors price the risk of unexpected losses. We show that the risk premium is often the larger part of the spread.

We propose a new approach to measuring sovereign default risk. We use sovereign credit ratings and historical default rates provided by credit rating agencies to construct a measure of ratings-implied expected loss. We compare our measure of expected loss from sovereign defaults with stand-alone...

This paper introduces a new approach to pricing sovereign risk based on sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads. We estimate a dynamic market-based measure of sovereign risk and use it to decompose sovereign CDS spreads into expected losses from default and the market risk premia required by...

We propose a new approach to measuring sovereign default risk. We use sovereign credit ratings and historical default rates provided by credit rating agencies to construct a measure of ratings implied expected loss. We compare our measure of expected loss from sovereign defaults with stand-alone...

Sovereign spreads can be broken up into two components: the expected loss from default and the risk premium, with the latter reflecting how investors price the risk of unexpected losses. We show that the risk premium is often the larger part of the spread