Showing 1 - 10 of 27
In two famous and popular puzzles a participant is required to compare two numbers of which she is shown only one. In the first one there are two envelopes with money in them. The sum of money in one of the envelopes is twice as large as the other sum. An envelope is selected at random and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005407606
A decision maker is asked to express her beliefs by assigning probabilities to certain possible states. We focus on the relationship between her database and her beliefs. We show that, if beliefs given a union of two databases are a convex combination of beliefs given each of the databases, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463949
An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable y based on certain characteristics x=(x^{1},...,x^{m}), and on a database consisting of n observations of (x^{1},...,x^{m},y). A possible approach to combine past observations of x and y with the current values of x to generate an assessment of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005463969
Experimental psychologists and economists construct an individual or interactive decision situation in the laboratory. They find non-negligible differences between the observed behavior of participants and the theoretically implied behavior. We refer here to the expected utility theory and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010786770
The art of rhetoric may be defined as changing other people’s minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing them new information. One technique heavily used by rhetoric employs analogies. Using analogies, one may draw the listener’s attention to similarities between cases and to re-organize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010851430
People may be surprised by noticing certain regularities that hold in existing knowledge they have had for some time. That is, they may learn without getting new factual information. We argue that this can be partly explained by computational complexity. We show that, given a database, finding a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005093944
An agent is asked to assess a real-valued variable Y_{p} based on certain characteristics X_{p} = (X_{p}^{1},...,X_{p}^{m}), and on a database consisting (X_{i}^{1},...,X_{i}^{m},Y_{i}) for i = 1,...,n. A possible approach to combine past observations of X and Y with the current values of X to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005093957
Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005102106
Economic theory reduces the concept of rationality to internal consistency. The practice of economics, however, distinguishes between rational and irrational beliefs. There is therefore an interest in a theory of rational beliefs, and of the process by which beliefs are generated and justified....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005109592
Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005061914