We investigate the market-compatible degree of agent heterogeneity by identifying and analyzing the full range of conditional beliefs consistent with observed asset prices and good-deal bounds. Our methodology neither makes assumptions on underlying processes nor does it use survey data. It can...

We introduce a new class of swap trading strategies in incomplete markets, which disaggregate the tradeable compensation for time-varying nonlinear risks in aggregate market returns. While the price of Hellinger variance, a tradeable put-call symmetric measure of variance, has a leading...

This paper introduces a model-free decomposition of S&P 500 forward market index returns in terms of realized and implied dispersion, downside, and tail risk using option portfolios. The decomposition lends itself by construction to learn about the different sources of risk in the market return,...

This paper develops an optimal trading strategy explicitly linked to an agent's preferences and assessment of the distribution of asset returns. The price of this strategy is a portfolio of implied moments, and its expected excess returns naturally accommodate compensation for higher-order...

This paper studies whether the evident statistical predictability of bond risk premia translates into economic gains for investors. We propose a novel estimation strategy for a ne term structure models that jointly fits yields and bond excess returns, thereby capturing predictive information...