Showing 1 - 10 of 63
This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which agents use a Bayesian rule to learn about the state of monetary policy. Monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime shifts. The following results are obtained. First, the author's policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013032845
We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous coefficients and then implicitly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014536986
This paper considers a prototypical monetary business cycle model for the U.S. economy, in which the equilibrium is undetermined if monetary policy is ‘inactive? In previous multivariate studies it has been common practice to restrict parameter estimates to values for which the equilibrium is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293510
This paper illustrates the usefulness of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in approximating DSGE model posterior distributions. We show how the tempering schedule can be chosen adaptively, explore the benefits of an SMC variant we call generalized tempering for "online" estimation, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012144736
The paper provides new tools for the evaluation of DSGE models, and applies it to a large-scale New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with price and wage stickiness and capital accumulation. Specifically, we approximate the DSGE model by a vector autoregression (VAR),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604537
This paper estimates a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, specified along the lines of Galí and Monacelli (2005) and Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), using Chilean data for the full inflation-targeting period of 1999 to 2007. We study the specification of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283560
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models use modern macroeconomic theory to explain and predict comovements of aggregate time series over the business cycle and to perform policy analysis. We explain how to use DSGE models for all three purposes - forecasting, story telling, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010287108
This paper reviews Bayesian methods that have been developed in recent years to estimate and evaluate dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. We consider the estimation of linearized DSGE models, the evaluation of models based on Bayesian model checking, posterior odds comparisons,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005498080
We develop a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm for estimating Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, wherein a particle approximation to the posterior is built iteratively through tempering the likelihood. Using three examples consisting of an artificial state-space...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011207431
Data from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply are simulated under various scal policy regimes and an approximating representative-agent model is estimated. Preference and technology parameter estimates of the representative-agent model are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011191554