We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically...

We use survey data on expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns to fed funds (FF) futures and overnight index swaps (OIS) into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are almost entirely driven by expectation errors, while term...

We use survey expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns on fed funds futures and overnight index swaps into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are primarily driven by expectation errors, while term premia are economically...

This paper studies the violation of the most basic no-arbitrage condition in international finance - Covered Interest Parity (CIP). We find that the CIP puzzle largely stems from funding liquidity differences, reflected in the marginal funding rates of the main arbitrageurs. With severe funding...

To understand deviations from Covered Interest Parity (CIP) it is crucial to account for heterogeneity in funding costs---both across banks and currency areas. For most market participants, the no-arbitrage relation holds fairly well when implemented using marginal funding costs and risk-free...

This paper studies the violation of the most basic no-arbitrage condition in international finance — Covered Interest Parity (CIP). We find that the CIP puzzle largely stems from funding liquidity differences, reflected in the marginal funding rates of the main arbitrageurs. With severe...

This paper studies the violation of the most basic no-arbitrage condition in international finance - Covered Interest Parity (CIP). To understand the CIP conundrum, it is key to (i) account for funding frictions in U.S. dollar money markets, and (ii) to study the challenges of swap...

We develop a general equilibrium model with intermediaries at the heart of international financial markets. Global intermediaries bargain with households and extract rents for providing access to foreign claims. The behavior of intermediaries, by tilting state prices, breaks monetary neutrality...

We develop a general equilibrium model with intermediaries at the heart of international financial markets. In our model, intermediaries bargain with their customers and extract rents for providing access to foreign claims. The behavior of intermediaries, by tilting state prices, generates an...

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...