This paper presents an approach to understanding the shadow banking system in the United States using a new Global Flow of Funds (GFF) conceptual framework developed by the IMF's Statistics Department (STA). The GFF uses external stock and flow matrices to map claims between sector-location...

This paper explores the concept of global liquidity, its measurement and macro-financial importance. We construct two sets of indicators for global liquidity: a quantity series distinguishing between core and noncore liabilities of financial intermediatires and a corresponding price series....

We illustrate the corrosive effect of even small amounts of adverse selection in an asset market and show how it can lead to the total breakdown of trade. The problem is the failure of "market confidence," defined as approximate common knowledge of an upper bound on expected losses. Small...

In emerging market economies, currency appreciation goes hand in hand with compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is...

Currency appreciation against the US dollar is associated with the compression of emerging market economy (EME) sovereign yields. We find that this yield compression is due to reduced risk premiums rather than expectations of interest rates already priced into forward rates. We explore a model...

We lay out a model of risk capacity for global portfolio investors in which swings in exchange rates can affect their risk-taking capacity in a Value-at-Risk framework. Exchange rate fluctuations induce shifts in portfolio holdings of global investors, even in the absence of currency mismatches...

The financial channel of exchange rates operates through changes in risk-taking by investors and is reflected in the response of financial conditions to exchange rate movements. We show that stock returns also reflect the financial channel of exchange rates, with higher local currency stock...

We look back at past episodes of financial stress in Asia with a forward-looking perspective. We put ourselves in the shoes of a contemporary observer with the data at hand and ask what evidence was available on the systematic build-up of vulnerabilities. We reconstruct a graphical narrative of...

Lending to emerging market economies (EMEs) through bond purchases has surged since 2009. What are the risks of a sudden stop? Bond mutual funds may curtail credit through two channels. The first is redemptions by ultimate investors. The second is additional discretionary sales by fund managers,...

The headline numbers appear to show that even as banks and financial intermediaries suffered large credit losses in the financial crisis of 2007-09, they raised substantial amounts of new capital, both from private investors and through government-funded capital injections. However, on closer...