This paper develops a new approach to testing for the existence of a linear long-run relationship, when the orders of integration of the underlying regressors are not known with certainty. The test is the standard Wald or F - statistic for testing the significance of the lagged levels of the...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...