This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macro-economic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

This book provides a comprehensive description of the state-of-the-art in modelling global and national economies. It introduces the long-run structural approach to modelling that can be readily adopted for use in understanding how economies work, and in generating forecasts for decision- and...

A new modelling strategy that provides a practical approach to incorporating long-run structural relationships, suggested by economic theory, in an otherwise unrestricted VAR model is applied to construct a small quarterly macroeconometric model of the UK, estimated over 1965q1-1999q4 in nine...