Intro -- Contents -- Financial Innovation and Economic Crisis: An Introduction -- INVENTORS, PRODUCTS, AND INVESTORS IN FINANCE -- 1 Inventors in Finance: An Impressionistic History of the People Who Have Made Risk Management Work -- 2 Psychology and the Financial Crisis of 2007 - 2008 -- 3...

We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of US listed firms, creates...