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We study the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We report two key findings: forecasters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480587
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481591
We study the rationality of individual and consensus professional forecasts of macroeconomic and financial variables using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast revisions. We report two key findings: forecasters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012912181
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Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013294960