Modeling the nominal exchange rate has been one of the most difficult exercises in economics. This paper attempts to estimate the nominal rand-USD exchange rate under the Dornbusch(1980) and Frankel (1979) overshooting model using the Johansen cointegration technique. The overshooting model fits...

This paper estimates the equilibrium real exchange rate and the resulting real exchange rate misalignment in Namibia during the period 1970 to 2004. The equilibrium real exchange rate is determined by trade and exchange restrictions (openness), terms of trade and ratio of investment to GDP. An...

The study applies an augmented gravity equation to South Africa's exports of motor vehicles, parts & accessories (SIC 381-383) to 76 countries over the period 1994 to 2003. The study employs a dynamic panel data model to estimate long-run and short-run coefficients. First, it is shown that it...

The study attempts to empirically identify factors that determine South Africa-US intra-industry trade (IIT) in selected services during the period 1994-2003. A number of hypotheses based on models of IIT for goods trade are tested. The study utilises an estimation methodology that is robust to...

The paper develops a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model of the South African economy for the period of 1970:1-2000:4 and forecasts GDP, consumption, investment, short-term and long term interest rates, and the CPI. We find that a tight prior produces relatively more accurate forecasts...

The paper investigates the bank-lending channel (BLC) of monetary policy in South Africa using quarterly bank-level data for the period 2000Q1-2004Q4. Capital adequacy and bank size are used as indicators for information problems faced by banks when they look for external finance. Utilising...