We combine modern methods from Speech Emotion Recognition and Natural Language Processing with high-frequency financial data to analyze how the vocal emotions and language of ECB President Mario Draghi affect the yield curve of major euro area economies. Vocal emotions significantly impact the...

This paper estimates forward-looking and forecast-based Taylor rules for France, Germany, Italy, as well as the euro area, using both final revised data and real-time data. We are particularly interested in the impact of adding asset prices to the standard Taylor rule specification. Since...

Narratives that portray macroeconomic policies in Japan as unlike ones pursued in other large economies persist. I revisit how several factors, including monetary, fiscal, and demographic factors impact Japan, the US, and the euro area. Panel VARs driven by factors or observed macroeconomic...

We estimate a novel text based ideal point model (TV-TBIP) for two main topics central bankers communicate about, namely monetary policy and financial stability. This is used to evaluate the content of speeches based on the ideological position of the speaker. We find that the ECB transitions...

Voting by Shadow monetary policy committees (SMPCs) provide hints about monetary policy decisions. We examine data for Australia, Canada and the euro area. SMPCs release individual members' recommendations. Their central banks do not. How much variation is there in preferences towards inflation...