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We extend the analysis of Christoffersen and Diebold (1998) on long-run forecasting in cointegrated systems to multicointegrated systems. For the forecast evaluation we consider several loss functions, each of which has a particular interpretation in the context of stock-flow models where...
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In this paper long-run forecasting of multicointegrating variables is investigated. Multicointegration typically occurs in dynamic systems involving both stock and flow variables whereby a common feature in the form of shared stochastic trends is present across different levels of multiple time...
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In a pioneering attempt we present the R(ecession)-word index for Switzerland. We evaluate its predictive ability of …
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- can be useful for short-term out-of-sample prediction of year-on-year quarterly real GDP growth rates in Switzerland. We …
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