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In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the alternative leading indicators for … forecasting ability of the leading indicators has been rather good in the pre-break period but it significantly deteriorated in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003217187
regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
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This study investigates usefulness of business tendency surveys in industrial sector for out-of-sample prediction of growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090690
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even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012039490
This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338122
This paper presents a composite leading indicator for the Swiss business cycle corresponding to the growth rate cycle concept. It is the result of a complete overhaul of the KOF Economic Barometer that has been published by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute on a monthly basis since 1976. In line...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013057114