Showing 1 - 10 of 196
improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is … sample size, the combinations of individual forecast do not improve the forecast accuracy. On average, the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010238830
the forecasts, given the local nature of real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is tested in a … confidence at the national level, consumer confidence, and price-to-rent ratios. Even better forecast precision can be achieved … by combining individual forecasts. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20%, measured by reduction in RMSFE …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011505867
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to … facilitate substantial improvements of the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of … possible to detect when using full-sample estimation information. On average, the forecast improvements attain about 20 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010482020
improving the forecasts, given the local nature of the real-estate markets. The forecast accuracy of different predictors is … sample size, the combinations of individual forecast do not improve the forecast accuracy. On average, the forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014148833
growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the … recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we … conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009557735
growth of industrial production in Russia. A special attention is paid to performance of survey-augmented models during the … recent Great Recession 2008/2009. Using the real-time data vintages of the index of industrial production in Russia we … conclude that the use of surveys positively contributes to boosting forecast accuracy of industrial production compared with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013090690
alternative during the 2008m1-2009m5 forecast period. In addition, Google indicators are available at weekly frequency and not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897268
In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003958670
based on an univariate autoregressive model. At every subsequent forecast round as new monthly releases of the KOF Barometer … become available we observe a steady increase in forecast accuracy. -- Leading indicators ; forecasting ; Bayesian model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008728700
In this paper, we investigate whether the Google search activity can help in nowcasting the year-on-year growth rates of monthly US private consumption using a real-time data set. The Google-based forecasts are compared to those based on a benchmark AR(1) model and the models including the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008729133