Showing 1 - 10 of 47
regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011307779
In this paper we suggest an approach to comparison of models' forecasting performance in unstable environments. Our … tracking how the relative forecasting performance of competing models evolves over time. We illustrate the suggested approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011417859
Die Kaufpreise für Eigentumswohnungen sind seit Beginn des Jahres 2010 um durchschnittlich sechs Prozent gegenüber dem jeweiligen Vorjahresquartal gestiegen. Die Wachstumsraten der Mietpreise haben mit vier Prozent deutlich weniger zugenommen, liegen aber ebenfalls oberhalb der allgemeinen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327607
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 … tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010331958
Die geplante Stärkung der Eigenverantwortlichkeit der Länder im Zuge der Föderalismusreformen wird zu einem erhöhten Bedarf an Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer führen. Während in Deutschland für die Konjunkturbeobachtung auf gesamtstaatlicher Ebene Quartalsdaten zur Verfügung...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601832
even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012038663
We investigate whether the KOF Economic Barometer - a leading indicator released by the KOF Swiss Economic Institute - is useful for short-term prediction of quarterly year-on-year real GDP growth in Switzerland. Using a real-time data set consisting of historical vintages of GDP data and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011933267
forecasting of the Swiss GDP. We find that the factor model offers a substantial improvement in forecast accuracy of GDP growth … content for GDP forecasting, although their ranking depends on the underlying transformation of monthly indicators from which …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014609407
This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than … estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (i) the standard fixed effects … variables estimators, (iv) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010267584
subject to revisions. This makes them an excellent source of information for the macroeconomic forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274377