If multivariate dynamic models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that it be possible to provide probability assessments of their results. Bayesian VAR models in the existing literature have not commonly (in fact, not at all as far as we know) been presented with error...

We examine the theory and behavior in practice of Bayesian and bootstrap methods for generating error bands on impulse responses in dynamic linear models. The Bayesian intervals have a firmer theoretical foundation in small samples, are easier to compute, and are about as good in small samples...

Models of low-frequency behavior of time series may have strongly conflicting substantive implications while fitting the data nearly equally well. We should develop methods which display the resulting uncertainty rather than adopt modeling conventions which hide it. One step toward this goal may...

If multivariate dynamic models are to be used to guide decision-making, it is important that it be possible to provide probability assessments of their results. Bayesian VAR models in the existing literature have not commonly (in fact, not at all as far as we know) been presented with error...

It is argued that economists ought to recognize that modeling in different styles will be appropriate for different purposes or different stages in the development of an area of economics. As an example, the paper displays simulations of a stochastic general equilibrium model which shed light on...