In this paper we examine the spillovers of a shock to real output in the euro area to Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and its subregions Central Europe, Southeastern Europe, Russia, and the other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). To this effect, we apply a...

For Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, the euro area is the most important export destination. Nevertheless, geographical export patterns differ among individual CESEE countries, and economic growth within the euro area has diverged in the run-up to and since the...

The importance of assessing financial stability in emerging Europe has increased rapidly since the recent financial crisis. Against this background, in the present paper we contribute to the existing literature in a twofold way: First, by using a broad range of indicators from money, bond,...

This study provides an overview of economic developments in the Republic of Serbia since the end of the Miloševi´c regime in the fall of 2000. Starting from a short review of the political context, the study reports on Serbia’s relations with the EU and the IMF as well as the Paris and the...

Among the plethora of early warning mechanisms for currency crises proposed in the literature, there is an approach which has received little attention so far. This rather simple early warning indicator relies on the term structure of relative interest rates, unlike the vast majority of such...

Crespo Cuaresma and Slacík (2007) show that macroeconomic cík fundamentals are rather fragile determinants of currency crises under model uncertainty. The objective of the present follow-up study is to search for empirical support for the first- and second-generation models of currency crises...

In the present paper we examine whether financial markets could have helped predict exchange rates in selected Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) economies, namely the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, during the current financial crisis. To this end, we derive risk-neutral...

This paper describes the new forecasting tool used by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB) to derive near-term forecasts for GDP and imports for five Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, namely Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. An error...

In this contribution, we tackle explicitly the issue of model uncertainty in the framework of binary variable models of currency crises. Using Bayesian model averaging techniques, we assess the robustness of the explanatory variables proposed in the recent literature for both static and dynamic...