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Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019 : cyclical and structural drivers
Koester, Gerrit; Lis, Eliza Magdalena; Nickel, Christiane; … - 2021
From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over …-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical … developments account for a substantial share of the fall in underlying inflation, mainly in the first part of the low inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012650860
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The first twenty years of the European Central Bank : monetary policy
Hartmann, Philipp; Smets, Frank - 2018
On 1 June 2018 the ECB celebrated its 20th anniversary. This paper provides a comprehensive view of the ECB's monetary policy over these two decades. The first section provides a chronological account of the macroeconomic and monetary policy developments in the euro area since the adoption of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011959260
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Comparing shocks and frictions in US and Euro area business cycles : a Bayesian DSGE approach
Smets, Frank (contributor); Wouters, Rafael (contributor) - 2004
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002554857
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Comparing Shocks and Frictions in US and Euro Area Business Cycles : A Bayesian DSGE Approach
Smets, Frank - 2010
This paper estimates a DSGE model with many types of shocks and frictions for both the US and the euro area economy over a common sample period (1974-2002). The structural estimation methodology allows us to investigate whether differences in business cycle behaviour are due to differences in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013137108
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A Quantitative Perspective on Optimal Monetary Policy Cooperation between the US and the Euro Area
Adjemian, Stephane - 2008
The objective of this paper is to examine the main features of optimal monetary policy cooperation within a micro-founded macroeconometric frame-work. First, using Bayesian techniques, we estimate a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for the United States (US) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012772411
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DSGE models and their use at the ECB
Smets, Frank; Christoffel, Kai; Coenen, Günter; Motto, … - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 1 (2010) 1/2, pp. 51-65
Bayesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models combine microeconomic behavioural foundations with a full-system Bayesian likelihood estimation approach using key macro-economic variables. Because of the usefulness of this class of models for addressing questions regarding the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009355421
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International Transmission and Monetary Policy Cooperation
Coenen, Günter; Lombardo, Giovanni; Smets, Frank; … - 2021
We use a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) developed at the ECB in order to quantify the gains from monetary policy cooperation. The model is calibrated in order to match a set of empirical moments. We then derive the cooperative and (open-loop) Nash monetary policies, assuming that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316628
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Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment
Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdon, Carlos; Smets, Frank - 2020
near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012137689
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Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment
Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Smets, Frank - 2020
near-term economic outlook, characterised by persistently low nominal interest rates and inflation, and in a lasting low …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149021
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Investment and Monetary Policy in the Euro Area
Mojon, Benoit; Smets, Frank; Vermeulen, Philip - 2021
Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of budget balances. The approach is based on a disaggregated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013320277