A field experiment revealed 3 forms of unrealistic optimism in skilled investors’ interval predictions of future stock returns. The judgmental intervals were about 50% shorter than realized spreads in recent 3–6months histories, suggesting that “underestimation of volatility” persists...

Class and field surveys revealed that personal inclination to take structured lottery-risk significantly correlates with optimism in financial forecasting. Trait optimism reflects in return predictions for successful and problematic stocks, in likelihood assessments of specific events, and even...

The "impossibility of speculations" result implied by some models of information economics seems to follow directly from the strong assumptions concerning the information structure in the relevant models. This paper investigates whether the impossibility result hold when some "noise" is...