We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs setting of Kurz (1994a,b). In a potentially non-stationary but stationarizable environment, it is possible to hold more than one (small-r) “rational” expectation. When rational...

We present strong evidence that financial bubbles can be identified ex-ante and that a sharp price increase, when suitably qualified by a bubble indicator called LPPLS confidence, does on average predict unusually low returns going forward. For this, we use a methodology called log-periodic...

We investigate the distributions of e-drawdowns and e-drawups of the most liquid futures financial contracts of the world at time scales of 30 seconds. The e-drawdowns (resp. e-drawups) generalise the notion of runs of negative (resp. positive) returns so as to capture the risks to which...

In this paper, we examine the performance of three DeMark indicators (Sequential, Combo and Setup trend), which constitute specific implementations of technical analysis often used by practitioners, over twenty-one commodity futures markets and ten years of daily data. Our work addresses price...

The aim of this paper is to present novel tests for the early causal diagnostic of positive and negative bubbles in the S&P 500 index and the detection of End-of-Bubble signals with their corresponding confidence levels. We use monthly S&P 500 data covering the period from August 1791 to August...