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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010198059
We propose a novel class of models in which the crash hazard rate is determined by a function of a non-local estimation of mispricing. Rooted in behavioral finance, the non-local estimation embodies in particular the characteristic of "anchoring" on past price levels and the "probability...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800780
We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs … beliefs can thus account for speculative bubbles, without the need for irrational agents or limits to arbitrage. Many of the … shortcomings of REBs that make rational bubbles implausible can be overcome once we relax the ergodicity requirement. In particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181099
bubbles in classical asset market experiments. Our setup is more realistic as it offers multiple securities that are … its rationality can be evaluated. Quick consensus emerges early yielding pronounced market bubbles. The overpricing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514493
We construct risk-neutral return probability distributions from S&P 500 options data over the decade 2003 to 2013, separable into pre-crisis, crisis and post-crisis regimes. The pre-crisis period is characterized by increasing realized and, especially, option-implied returns. This translates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010443041
We propose an extension of the class of rational expectations bubbles (REBs) to the more general rational beliefs … beliefs can thus account for speculative bubbles, without the need for irrational agents or limits to arbitrage. Many of the … shortcomings of REBs that make rational bubbles implausible can be overcome once we relax the ergodicity requirement. In particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012919580
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014483276
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012586941
A vast literature investigating behavioural underpinnings of financial bubbles and crashes relies on laboratory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012001796
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003794379