We compare the treatment of Colombia in large cross-country conflict datasets with the information of the detailed micro dataset of Restrepo, Spagat and Vargas (2003). We find a general tendency of the big datasets to underestimate the magnitude of the Colombian conflict and to mischaracterize...

We model growth in dictatorships facing each period an endogenous probaibility of "political catastrophe" that would extinguish the regime's wealth ability. Domestic capital exhibits a bifurcation point determining economic growth or shrinkage. With low initial domestic capital the dictator...

We present a detailed, high-frequency data set on the civil conflict in Colombia during the period 1988-2002. We briefly introduce the Colombian case and the methodological issues that hinder data collection in civil wars, before presenting the pattern over time of conflict actions and intensity...

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply to long-run averages since 1988, lower for April- December, 2003; government- guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings...

We compare the treatment of Colombia in large cross-country conflict datasets with the information of the detailed micro dataset of Restrepo, Spagat and Vargas (2003). We find a general tendency of the big datasets to underestimate the magnitude of the Colombian conflict and to mischaracterize...

By promoting some of the poor into the middle class and thereby co-opting them into the system, a self-interested elite reduces the threat of political instability and the risk of being overthrown. Co-optation is accomplished through the transfer of resources to some of the poor, enabling them...

Transition economies have an initial condition of high human capital relative to GDP per capita. But they will not necessarily realize their latent high growth potential. In the model, at a good equilibrium a large number of children of well-educated parents take advantage of their family...

A domestic power faces an enemy and commits terrorist atrocities to increase the likelihood of victory. A foreign patron can grant aid to the power but prefers fewer or no atrocities. The domestic power responds by acquiescing in the creation of uncontrollable paramilitaries that commit even...

We study the evolution of an educational system founded on a hierarchical differentiation between vocational and general education, with vocational playing an inferior role in the society. The dynamics are best summarized by the ratio of the fraction of the population in vocational to that in...

Developing country leaders typically resemble proprietors more than benevolent social planners, i.e., they are powerful individuals pursuing their own interests while they remain in power. We model growth in a "proprietary economy" facing each period an endogenous probability of "political...