This paper uses a macro-finance model to examine the ability of the gilt market to predict fluctuations in macroeconomic volatility. The econometric model is a development of the standard ‘square root’ volatility model, but unlike the conventional term structure speci…cation it allows for...

This paper explores the implications of time varying volatility for optimal monetary policy and the measurement of welfare costs. We show how macroeconomic models with linear and quadratic state dependence in their variance structure can be used for the analysis of optimal policy within the...

This paper shows that the standard and deferred filtration structural models of corporate default are isomorphic, allowing the insights of the standard full information setting to be carried over to the more complex case of asymmetric information. It shows that the accounting lag, which provides...

This paper addresses questions about the structure of the economy and financial markets raised by recent research on the term structure. The work of Duffee (2012) and Joslin, Preibsch and Singleton (2012) suggests that macroeconomic variables affect risk premia rather than bond yields, which are...

We adapt the Meiselman (1962) OLS forward rate revision framework to obtain the discrete time analogue of the Heath, Jarrow and Morton (1992) specification and use it for estimating and testing term structure models. Our framework is based upon the Wold representation of the factor dynamics and...

This paper uses the exponential generalised heteroscedasticity model-in-mean (EGARCH- M) to analyse the relationship between the equity risk premium and macroeconomic volatility. This premium depends upon conditional volatility, which is significantly affected by the long bond yield, acting as a...

This paper uses a simplified version of the Duffie and Lando (2002) deferred filtration model to handle the effect of asymmetric information about US banks asset portfolios during the recent crisis, when banks were reluctant to lend to one another because they were not sure about the balance...

This paper develops a macroeconomic model of the yield curve and uses this to explain the behaviour of the US Treasury market. Unlike previous macro-finance models which assume a homoscedastic error process, I develop a general affine model which allows volatility to be conditioned by interest...

This paper develops a multi-country macro-finance model to study international economic and financial linkages. This approach models economic and financial variables jointly using both to throw light on such issues. The world economy is modelled using data for the US and aggregate OECD economies...

This paper generalizes the standard homoscedastic macro-finance model by allowing for stochastic volatility, using the ‘square root’ specification of the mainstreamfinance literature. Empirically, this specification dominates the standard model because it is consistent with the square root...