In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

Models are studied where the response Y and covariates X, T are assumed to fulfill E(Y

Models are studied where the response Y and covariates X, T are assumed to fulfill E(Y|X; T) = G{XT β + α + m1(T1) + … + md(Td)}. Here G is a known (link) function, β is an unknown parameter, and m1, …, md are unknown functions. In particular, we consider additive binary response models...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...