We used Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006 - 2010 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from)...

Recent price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using survey data for Canada, Japan, and the United States, we did not find...

Heterogenous agents models have proven to be capable of explaining price dynamics on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by allowing time series properties to be state dependent. This paper investigates whether market participants' expectations already reflect these time varying...

Using survey forecasts of a large number of Asian, European, and South American emerging market exchange rates, we studied empirically whether evidence of herding or antiherding behavior of exchange-rate forecasters can be detected in the cross-section of forecasts. Emerging market exchange-rate...

We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters that...

Fly with the Eagles or Scratch with the Chickens? – Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters We analyze whether exchange-rate forecasters herd. To this end, we lay out two widely studied theoretical models of forecaster herding. The models illustrate why forecasters may herd. We then...

In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations. Our findings seem to indicate that the extrapolative as well as the regressive expectation formation hypothesis play a role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal...

In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, ob Wechselkursprognosen Anhaltspunkte dafür liefern, dass Prognostiker ein so genanntes Herdenverhalten zeigen. Auf der Basis unterschiedlicher theoretischer Modellansätze wird skizziert, warum Prognostiker einen Anreiz haben könnten, einem Herdentrieb zu...

In diesem Beitrag wird analysiert, wie sich die Teilnahme an einer Lehrveranstaltung aus dem Bereich des E-Learning auf das Klausurergebnis auswirkt. Der Leistungsunterschied zwischen Teilnehmern und Nichtteilnehmern lasst sich nicht allein auf die Partizipation an der Veranstaltung...