Binary Autoregressive Moving Average (BARMA) models provide a modeling technology for binary time series analogous to the classic Gaussian ARMA models used for continuous data. BARMA models mitigate the curse of dimensionality found in long lag Markov models and allow for non-Markovian...

The term structures of Canada and of the United States, two countries with historically close economic ties, have been closely linked. We investigate the link between Canadian and U.S. yield curves and show previously strong correlations between yield curve components dissipate after Canadian...

Are consumers forward-looking? According to the certainty-equivalence version of the life cycle/permanent income hypothesis, consumption is a function of the expected present value of income. Using longitudinal data from the PSID, I invert this function and compare the realized present value of...

We investigate confidence intervals and inference for the instrumental variables model with weak instruments. Wald-based confidence intervals perform poorly in that the probability they reject the null is far greater than their nominal size. In the worst case, Wald-based confidence intervals...

This paper develops an informational model of litigation in which court decisions are a function of legal representation. In this model, resource constraints determine how much parties expend on legal representation. The allocation of resources across parties influences court decisions in two...

The fact that weak instruments lead to spurious inference is now widely recognized. In this paper we ask whether spurious inference occurs more generally in weakly identified models. To distinguish between models where spurious inference will occur from those where it does not, we introduce the...