Success in development over the past half-century was based on manufacturing-led export growth. Because the share of global employment in manufacturing will decline, manufacturing won't play the same role in the coming decades. An increase in manufacturing employment won't suffice to meet the...

The oscillations in the general views on the prospects for the future, alternating between the despair of imminent and inevitable doom and the euphoria of an impending new millenium, have a remarkable regularity about them, perhaps matching that of the long business cycle. The nineteenth century...